Pinatubo (10/11): Pinatubo is by all accounts the rightful favourite for this year’s 2000 Guineas, he proved himself an exceptional 2-y-o in the way he went about winning a Group 1 at the Curragh before signing off last season with a 2L success in the Dewhurst at Newmarket. There is no reason as to why he won’t stay the mile for the Guineas and as long as he has trained on then on what he achieved last season he is going to be very hard to beat, but at a shade of odds-on it makes sense to try and find some each way value against him.
Arizona (7/1-6/1): This Aidan O’Brien trained colt by No Nay Never has been thereabouts now in four Group 1’s, but his runner-up effort to Pinatubo last season in the Dewhurst suggests he has a Group 1 in him if all falls right. His last run at Santa Anita in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf is best excused as little went right for him from what was an atrocious draw on the day, but what he does have to prove more than some in this year’s 2000 Guineas is his ability to effectively stay the mile trip. If he does so he looks sure to be involved.
Kinross (12/1): This Ralph Beckett colt by Kingman should have no issues in staying the mile and it’s difficult to forget the visual impression he made when scoring by 8 lengths on debut at Newmarket (7f) when beating subsequent winner Raaeb. It was one of the best debut efforts we had seen from a 2-y-o last season and although he could only manage 5th in the Futurity Trophy on his next start, it’s worth bearing in mind that he had only had one outing prior to that and lacked the experience of the rest of the field which was evident on the day as well as his trainer reporting he didn’t enjoy the surface.
Kameko (10/1): This Andrew Balding trained colt by Kitten’s Joy took a huge step forward when we were on him to good effect at Newcastle in the Futurity Trophy in November, scoring by a comfortable 3.25L margin. There’s an argument to be made in that the surface may well have suited him better than some, in particular Kinross, but one cannot ignore the fact he improved with each and every start he had last season. Reports are that he has been in excellent form at home since and having already run well on the Rowley Mile course when narrowly denied in the Royal Lodge he looks a key player in this year’s 2000 Guineas.
Wichita (16/1-14/1) – Wichita would, based on the market at least, seem like a clear second string to stablemate Arizona, but he remains unexposed having had just the four runs and although he has been kept to 7f thus far he has the stamina in his pedigree to suggest he should stay the mile being a half-brother to the likes of Magistrat (won over 1m2f) and Algtaah (won over 8.5f). He proved himself a highly progressive colt on just his third start last season when scoring emphatically by 7L on the Rowley Mile in the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes and although he came unstuck in the Dewhurst when 3rd behind Arizona and Pinatubo, the stable clearly expected better given he was sent off 7/2 over Arizona (14/1). Better ground on Saturday as well as the step up to a mile may well see him to better effect.
Of the rest: There have been some good reports for both Military March and Al Suhail. Military March made a very promising debut before going on to take the Autumn Stakes (Group 3) over C&D at Newmarket when getting the better of Al Suhail (20/1 for the 2000 Guineas). Military March’s pedigree does not scream that of a Guineas horse however, being bred to come into his own over 1 ½ miles – he looks more of a Derby type in my opinion and the suspicion is he may lack the speed of a few of these. He remains an exciting prospect for the season ahead however and he remains a classic contender. Al Suhail will naturally need to improve by a fair margin if he’s to get involved in this year’s Guineas – a 3rd to Kameko and Positive in the Solario Stakes and a 2nd to Military March the suspicion is he will come up short, albeit he has reportedly improved plenty for the time off.
Conclusion: If Pinatubo is taken out of the equation from a price perspective then this year’s 2000 Guineas would appear a relatively open one. Arizona and Wichita do have questions to answer in regards to stamina, the same of which cannot be said about Kameko. If he has trained on I have little doubt Pinatubo is the most likely winner based on his 2-y-o exploits, but I was drawn to Kameko throughout last season and having improved on each and every start last year I suspect he will do so again this year and looks like a horse that will make up into a high-class 3-y-o. At 10/1 he represents some value against the favourite and looks a flag-bearer for trainer Andrew Balding this season.
